The numbers are striking. Global travel and tourism is forecast to contribute $12 trillion to the world economy in 2026, accounting for 9.9 per cent of global GDP and growing at 3.2 per cent well ahead of wider global economic growth forecast at 2.4 per cent.
Published by the World Travel & Tourism Council, the data paints a picture of a sector not merely recovering from the disruptions of recent years, but actively outperforming the broader economy. Over the next decade, travel and tourism GDP is forecast to grow at an average annual rate of 3.6 per cent 1.5 times faster than the wider global economy potentially supporting almost 89 million new jobs, representing approximately one-third of all new jobs expected across the broader economy.
For New Zealand travel advisors, the WTTC data arrives at a moment of genuine commercial momentum. The market size of New Zealand’s travel agency and tour arrangement services industry stands at $1.3 billion in 2026, operating within a broader environment where New Zealand outbound travel is contributing to a global surge projected to exceed 225 million trips in 2026. The conditions for growth are clearly present. But so are the headwinds.
The Opportunities
Europe stands out as an immediate commercial opportunity. While wider European GDP growth is forecast at just one per cent in 2026, travel and tourism GDP across Europe is expected to grow by 3.6 per cent nearly four times faster with international visitor spending projected to grow 7.1 per cent, significantly ahead of the global average of 3.7 per cent. For Kiwi advisors with strong European programmes, this is a market firing on all cylinders.
Southern European destinations are leading regional momentum, with Italy forecast to lead major European markets at 3.8 per cent growth, Spain at 3.7 per cent, and international visitor spending in Spain forecast to increase 5.3 per cent in 2026. The Mediterranean remains one of the most commercially reliable selling environments for the New Zealand outbound market.
Beyond Europe, the WTTC data signals that travel is increasingly being prioritised over material goods, a behavioural shift that favours advisors who can articulate the value of experience-led travel. The experience economy is valued in the billions of dollars and represents a largely untapped revenue opportunity for travel advisors, with nearly two-thirds of experiences still booked offline. Advisors who bundle curated in-destination experiences alongside accommodation and flights are positioned to capture margin that online platforms consistently leave on the table.
The Threats
Geopolitical instability remains the sector’s most unpredictable variable. The global picture is complicated by ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza, escalating unrest in the Middle East and parts of Africa, and rising tensions in the United States creating a complex landscape that travellers must continue to navigate in 2026. US-led tariffs and retaliatory trade barriers are threatening to dampen travel demand, push up airfares, and create currency volatility that directly affects discretionary travel spending. For New Zealand travellers whose long-haul journeys are already among the most expensive in the world, any sustained upward pressure on fares or the New Zealand dollar could have a direct impact on booking conversion.
Overtourism is an escalating complication for some of the very destinations performing most strongly. Popular European destinations including Barcelona, Venice and Santorini have seen residents protest against mass tourism, with overcrowding, rising living costs and strain on local services fuelling tensions and governments responding with tourist taxes and restrictions on short-term rentals. Three-quarters of surveyed travellers express concern about overtourism, with more than half reporting plans to avoid overcrowded hotspots. Advisors who continue to push the same well-worn itineraries risk clients arriving at destinations that feel overwhelmed rather than welcoming.
How New Zealand Advisors Should Respond
Lead with value, not price: In a market where household cost pressures are real but travel intent remains strong, clients are not looking for the cheapest option they are looking for the best reason to commit. Advisors who can articulate why a trip is worth booking now, and what makes a particular itinerary exceptional are better placed than those competing on fare alone.
Diversify destination storytelling: The strongest growth is not always in the most obvious places. Advisors should be building familiarity with emerging and shoulder destinations that deliver rich experiences without the overcrowding friction. Destinations such as Portugal’s interior, Slovenia, Georgia, Sri Lanka or Japan’s regional cities that offer clients something genuinely different from the mainstream.
Embrace the experience economy: With the majority of in-destination experiences still booked offline, every client itinerary is an upsell opportunity. Proactively integrating curated experiences private dining, cultural access, adventure activities, wellness into the booking conversation adds value, differentiates the advisory relationship and drives additional revenue.
Stay ahead of volatility: Geopolitical disruption, extreme weather events and shifting airline capacity are increasingly part of the travel landscape rather than exceptions to it. Advisors who proactively discuss flexible booking conditions, comprehensive travel insurance and contingency planning are providing a level of professional service that self-booking platforms simply cannot replicate and that builds lasting client loyalty.
The WTTC’s forecast is unambiguous that travel is one of the most resilient and fastest-growing sectors in the global economy. The opportunity for New Zealand travel advisors is real and substantial. But capturing it will require more than confidence in the numbers it will require advisors who are informed, agile and genuinely indispensable to their clients.