The latest IATA data for May 2025 confirms a broadly resilient air travel market, though beneath the headline 5% year-on-year growth in global passenger demand lies a strikingly uneven regional picture.
Asia-Pacific carriers once again set the pace, posting a remarkable 13.3% rise in international RPKs. This surge reflects robust demand across key corridors, including the rapidly expanding Africa–Asia market, which grew by 15.9%. The region’s overall load factor reached 84%, up two percentage points on last year, a testament to disciplined capacity management in the face of strong pent-up travel appetite. China’s domestic market also continued its steady rebound, with 7.4% growth and load factors strengthening further.
In stark contrast, North America underperformed. Total demand in the region fell 0.5%, weighed down by a 1.7% contraction in the crucial US domestic market. This decline can be traced to a combination of economic headwinds, including slower consumer spending and cutbacks in government travel. The resulting 3.1 percentage point decline in US domestic load factor underscores how sensitive airlines are to even modest shifts in economic sentiment.
European carriers recorded a modest 4.1% increase in international demand, broadly tracking capacity growth. However, load factors slipped 0.6 points to 84%, hinting at some softening in yields. The Middle East continued to expand steadily, with a 6.2% rise in RPKs, though the severe operational disruptions seen in June serve as a reminder of the region’s exposure to geopolitical volatility.
Latin American airlines posted an 8.8% increase in international traffic but struggled with a declining load factor down 1.7 percentage points as capacity rose faster than demand. Africa maintained its trajectory of improvement, with international RPKs up 9.5% and the strongest load factor gains of any region (+2.2 points).
Overall, May’s global load factor held firm at 83.4%, down only 0.1 percentage point year-on-year. This stability reflects solid forward bookings for the peak Northern Hemisphere summer season, lending weight to IATA’s cautiously optimistic tone. As Willie Walsh observed, consumer confidence remains robust despite pockets of weakness, and lower oil prices throughout May offered a reprieve to operating costs.
Key Takeaways
- Regional divergence is widening. Asia-Pacific has returned to robust double-digit growth, while North America faces short-term softness.
- Load factors remain high globally, but some regions especially Latin America and the US domestic market are under pressure from capacity growth and weaker demand.
- Geopolitical risks remain a wildcard, particularly in the Middle East, with any escalation liable to disrupt schedules and push up fuel costs.
- Structural growth drivers are intact. Demand for travel in Asia, Africa, and Latin America continues to outstrip mature markets.