International travel demand for January to June 2026 is tracking for modest year-on-year growth, with Asia emerging as the standout driver of global travel intent.
Mabrian’s study combines international air capacity with global flight-search behaviour across the top 50 airports in each world region, focusing strictly on international demand in the first half of 2026. The analysis covers 86.7% of global travel demand, using each region’s market share of total flight searches to compare how travel intent is evolving worldwide. Backed by a projected +5.9% increase in international air capacity versus the same period last year, Global inspirational demand is edging higher overall but the mix is shifting by region.
Asia remains the engine room
Asia is again positioned as the core growth story, with Eastern Asia and Southeast Asia jointly accounting for 31.7% of worldwide international inspirational demand. Eastern Asia alone represents 16.3% of demand for H1 2026, with Japan the main catalyst and interest expanding beyond the usual gateways to cities such as Fukuoka and Sapporo. Western Asia is also strengthening, capturing 8.9% of total international inspirational demand in the first half of 2026 and outperforming the same period in 2025. GCC countries are set to lift international air capacity by +3.6% over the next six months (year-on-year).
The strongest upward momentum in travel intent includes Jeddah and Riyadh, Doha, alongside Jakarta, Hanoi, Ho Chi Minh City, Seoul, Manila, and Tokyo.
“While traditionally popular regions continue to capture the largest share of global travel demand, we are seeing that lesser-known and alternative destinations are expanding their market share,” said Carlos Cendra, Director of Marketing and Communications at Mabrian. “This evolution is driven by the demand growth from emerging inbound markets and more appealing value for money, signalling that inspirational demand is diversifying like never before.”
Caribbean: softening intent amid regional uncertainty
Following tensions in early January, international travel intent toward the Caribbean shows a global softening, particularly among US and European markets with its Share of Searches Index indicating a slight decline in global market share through February and March. The decline is most visible in the US market, where the Caribbean’s outbound share slips from 9.1% to 7.6% year-on-year between January and March 2026, driven by weaker interest in the Mexican Caribbean, Dominican Republic, Jamaica, Aruba and the Colombian Caribbean.
The trade should keep Asia front-and-centre (including secondary Japanese cities and fast-rising Southeast Asian hubs), and watch the Gulf’s continued pull for stopover and long-haul connectivity.