Airlines are expected to strip more frequencies out of their northern winter schedules and park aircraft in greater numbers than usual, as elevated jet fuel prices push marginal services below the economic line.
The warning came from John Strickland of JLS Consulting, speaking during a World Aviation Festival webinar on 16 July. Strickland argued that no amount of fare discounting would allow carriers to recover the higher cost of fuel on weak services, and that more aircraft would end up on the ground as a result. He expects a higher level of cancellations through the season rather than a broad round of price cuts intended to stimulate demand.
Why cutting beats discounting
The instinct to discount into a soft season assumes the marginal seat still earns more than it costs to fly. That assumption has broken. IATA forecasts the industry fuel bill will rise by nearly 40 per cent, from US$252 billion in 2025 to US$350 billion in 2026, on an expected average jet fuel price of US$152 a barrel against US$90 last year, with the crack spread over Brent averaging a historic high of US$57 a barrel. Total fuel consumption is expected to be unchanged at 104 billion gallons, meaning the price alone lifts fuel’s share of operating expenses to 31.4 per cent from 25.4 per cent.
At that cost base, a discounted seat on a thin route does not cover its own variable cost. Cutting the frequency does two things a fare sale cannot. It removes the loss entirely, and it tightens supply on the services that remain, supporting yields across the wider network. Discounting does the opposite: it cannibalises the close-in, higher-yield bookings that make weak sectors survivable in the first place. There is a second, less visible driver pointing the same way. Analysts at Bernstein have noted that European carriers typically build hedge positions over an 18 month horizon, and the cheaper positions taken before the conflict progressively roll off. Their argument is that winter combines lower baseline contribution margins with a thinner hedging cushion, which is when strategically motivated but unprofitable flying becomes hardest to justify. IATA puts industry hedging at roughly one third of expected 2026 consumption, which smooths volatility without insulating anyone from a sustained repricing.
The precedent is already on file
Strickland’s forecast is not speculative in kind, only in scale. Cirium data show carriers removed around 13,000 flights and two million seats from May schedules alone, with the largest European reductions at Lufthansa and Turkish Airlines, and roughly 9.3 million seats stripped from June to September across 11 major markets. Lufthansa grounded 27 short-haul aircraft, retired four A340-600s ahead of schedule and cut its European summer programme by around 11 per cent, while KLM removed 160 intra-European services citing kerosene costs. Closer to home, the Qantas Group pared planned July to September international growth by two percentage points, suspended Sydney to Bengaluru from August to October and reduced trans-Tasman flying at both Qantas and Jetstar. Air New Zealand has cut around 9 per cent of flying between August and October, on top of roughly 5 per cent already removed. The carrier has flagged a full year pre-tax loss of NZ$340 million to NZ$390 million, has been explicit that fare rises have limits, saying cost of living pressure means some markets are reaching the ceiling of what they can absorb.
Capacity discipline is not frictionless. Network carriers cannot cut spokes without damaging the connecting revenue that fills long-haul widebodies, which is why hub feed often survives on paper losses. Slot retention rules at congested European airports also create an incentive to keep operating services that would otherwise be dropped. IAG’s Patricia Cortada told Routes Europe that the group was investing in its current network rather than taking short-term reactions, while acknowledging the winter 2026-27 season remained unfinalised because of the uncertainty.
The fuel outlook itself is unresolved. Brent fell below US$70 on 1 July following the 18 June US and Iran memorandum of understanding, prompting the EIA to cut its 2026 forecast to US$82 a barrel. Renewed disruption in the Strait of Hormuz from mid-July pushed oil back up around 10 per cent. Jet fuel spot prices had climbed back to about US$3.65 a gallon by 22 July after falling to roughly US$2.81 earlier in the month, according to Argus. Jet crack spreads remain close to double pre-conflict levels, and it is the crack, not crude, that sets the airline bill.
For agents
Assume less redundancy in northern winter schedules and thinner rebooking options when a service is pulled. Lower frequency routes, tag sectors and secondary gateways are the first to go, and cancellations announced late in the sales cycle are more likely than heavy discounting. Where clients are booking inbound or outbound long-haul for the December to March period, earlier commitment and flexible fare products are worth more than usual, because the fare sale that historically arrives in a soft season is unlikely to appear this year.